What Haleday predicted for this profile's days this week vs what actually happened — and whether it's getting better at reading you — forecast vs what you logged.
Demo profile — these prediction outcomes are pre-filled for illustration, not a real person's tracked history.
Getting sharper
Haleday predicted your days better than it did last week.
4.1%
vs last week: +86.9 pts (improved)
more accurate than guessing your average · 7 days
A 7-day slice of the rolling Insight Score on How it's learning. Measures forecast accuracy, not whether you hit your goals.
vs last week: -0.067 (more honest)
fair · 0 = perfect, 0.25 = a coin flip
Your last 7 logged days.
| Day | Predicted | Actual | Hit? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 2 | 51% | 57% | — missed |
| Tue Nov 3 | 54% | 59% | — missed |
| Wed Nov 4 | 56% | 65% | — missed |
| Thu Nov 5 | 61% | 72% | ✓ hit |
| Fri Nov 6 | 66% | 73% | ✓ hit |
| Sat Nov 7 | 70% | 83% | ✓ hit |
| Sun Nov 8(today) | 76% |
When the model forecasts a probability, how often did that actually happen this week? Matching bars mean it's well calibrated.
For forecasts between 40% and 60% (3 predictions), the model predicted 54% on average and the outcome happened 0% of the time.
For forecasts between 60% and 80% (4 predictions), the model predicted 68% on average and the outcome happened 100% of the time.
Computed from logged prediction outcomes — no AI involved. “Better than guessing your average” is the Insight Score; the score measures whether the stated probabilities are honest. Demo profile — outcomes are pre-filled for illustration.
| 80% |
| ✓ hit |